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May 5, 2026 - 7:44:28 PM
2748 posts since 1/16/2010

Guys,

I need some banjo hangout worldwide broker, economist, trader type wisdom here.

No politics please…they ALL SUCK!

So…my house has an oil furnace as the main heat source. When we moved in 12 years ago…it cost about $300 to fill up the 300 gallon oil tank. With the price of oil…specifically #2 diesel heating oil fuel at $7.00 a gallon here…it’s looking like it will cost me a couple grand to fill it up now.

Should I fill it up now…or wait until September/October?

Do you guys think the price will come down, stay the same, or increase?

It’s really weighing on me, and I’m
not sure what to do. I appreciate any insight!

Thanks!

Dow

May 5, 2026 - 8:12:52 PM
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Owen

Canada

19385 posts since 6/5/2011

No help with your problem, but a decade+ back we had the opportunity to switch our house from  electric to natural gas [sweetened... at least in the sort term... by a government subsidy* on the furnace and installation]. 

>>>  I switched the 20'X30' shop from oil to nat gas at the same time [no subsidy for the shop installation crying ].  I don't recall the actual numbers, but I'm pretty sure they favor natural gas by a fair bit..... and it created about 12' additional wall/shelf space. <<<

I trust others will chime in with more useful info.

* and I regularly give silent thanks to my fellow MB taxpayers.  wink

May 5, 2026 - 8:37:02 PM
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chuckv97

Canada

79079 posts since 10/5/2013

Tough call, Dow,, I’d probably fill up now in case Hormuz stays restricted,, if it goes up you’ll save,, if the issues get resolved it’ll go down but I hear not right away.

May 5, 2026 - 9:35:30 PM
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donc

Canada

7789 posts since 2/9/2010

Maybe diversify. How long does 300 gallons last ? If its less than 1 winter its time to do something. Is electric heat more expensive ? Space heaters could maybe take the edge off the total heating cost. There again I have no idea what electricity costs in the state of Wn. Fireplaces and wood stoves are being phased out here by newer building codes but it may be a workable plan where you live. I don't think your Wall street authorities are going to put up with this current plan forever. There I go with the political gibber jabber. The problem started quickly so it wouldn't be impossible for it to end quickly. My price for this week is $2.20 per liter for regular gas. Filling up my 4 cylinder Mazda CX5 is now about $95 CDN. I don't want to convert that into American dollars and gallons because I don't want to start throwing things in the house.

May 5, 2026 - 10:13:48 PM
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29879 posts since 6/25/2005

I have no idea. I suspect it will rise some more, and plateau, likely for a while, then drift slowly down. If that happens, best wait until the plateau breaks, then buy. That’s my guess— and a guess is all it is, but that would be my approach.

May 5, 2026 - 10:18:58 PM
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2748 posts since 1/16/2010

Thanks guys!

Don, we used 175 gallons of oil this last winter. We keep the woodstove going as much as possible…but it won’t heat the entire house…it helps a great deal…and keeps us from using the whole 300 gallons.

May 6, 2026 - 12:39:36 AM
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45081 posts since 3/5/2008

Well....i do not really know ..what is going to happen..

What is the minimum delivery in gallons you can get?
Round here it is 100 gallons..
Personaly..I think these prices..are a temporary thing..but fer how long ..idk..

We have seen these kinda high prices before..

Availability is the real factor..
Wood if bought can get pricy..
We can scrounge here pretty good..

Mebee just buy what you think you may need to get through the next year...?

As eelection years seem to get folks better prices..Just before the selection of our ..Fearless..Leaders... :0/

May 6, 2026 - 3:16:57 AM
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1360 posts since 10/31/2007

I am dealing with a similar situation here in Maine. We moved in January into an 1860 house. It has a two year old propane condensing boiler, so it is quite efficient. Propane is not cheap. It is more expensive than oil.
I will be installing heat pump(s) to tie into the existing system. Maine does not have as low electric rates as Washington but it still makes for a very low fuel cost. Also put in a wood stove for the several arctic days we will get.
I suspect your cooling load might be greater than Maine. A mini-split heat pump might be an alternative. Washington might have incentives to make the change.
Here in Maine, we are talking about one half the fuel cost over propane.

May 6, 2026 - 4:09:07 AM
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Players Union Member

slammer

USA

5749 posts since 12/30/2008

IMO! I feel it’s gonna be a while, at least months before it starts to come down. My biggest fear is just like the COVID price hike on everything, once they know the people will pay it, it ain’t coming back down to where it was.
Our whole house which is 5200 sq. ft. was heated with oil and propane and we switched to natural gas 2 years ago when it was time for a new boiler.
Best decision we made, although when oil was at normal prices, it was a great way to heat our house.

May 6, 2026 - 4:53:21 AM
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1196 posts since 4/27/2020
Online Now

quote:
Originally posted by slammer

Our whole house which is 5200 sq. ft.


How many horses do you keep in there?

May 6, 2026 - 5:28:24 AM
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9395 posts since 9/5/2006

not to be political but if you wait closer to november usa choices for certain folks,,,,,, ya know what i mean the closer it gets he more prices will drop.

May 6, 2026 - 5:32:25 AM
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9395 posts since 9/5/2006

quote:
Originally posted by donc

Maybe diversify. How long does 300 gallons last ? If its less than 1 winter its time to do something. Is electric heat more expensive ? Space heaters could maybe take the edge off the total heating cost. There again I have no idea what electricity costs in the state of Wn. Fireplaces and wood stoves are being phased out here by newer building codes but it may be a workable plan where you live. I don't think your Wall street authorities are going to put up with this current plan forever. There I go with the political gibber jabber. The problem started quickly so it wouldn't be impossible for it to end quickly. My price for this week is $2.20 per liter for regular gas. Filling up my 4 cylinder Mazda CX5 is now about $95 CDN. I don't want to convert that into American dollars and gallons because I don't want to start throwing things in the house.


wowzer !!!  wife filled up our cx5 yesterday,, it was near empty and it was 61 dollars and i screamed.

and just incase you really want to throw something ,,,,,,  it comes to $8.32 a gallon

Edited by - 1935tb-11 on 05/06/2026 05:34:28

May 6, 2026 - 6:09:24 AM
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Nopix

USA

384 posts since 6/11/2025

Just feed what you need. How many weeks of heat do you need, with summer on the way?
We lock-in and prepay many needful things. If they don't let you prepay, it doesn't cost anything to open another interest bearing account. No, interest rates aren't much anymore, but safer than a glass jar. Glass jars do have the advantage of being tax free.

May 6, 2026 - 6:36:16 AM
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16157 posts since 1/15/2005

I feel pretty certain that it will come down dramatically way before you need it . I would wait until this fall before filling it up.

May 6, 2026 - 11:29:21 AM
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2748 posts since 1/16/2010

Thanks for the insight gents!

I still have 125 gallons, and the furnace season is over. Hopefully the price will be down in September. I will pay close attention to price of a barrel day-to-day now.

It’s already down 6% this morning…since posting this thread last night.

May 6, 2026 - 11:39:41 AM
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Players Union Member

rinemb

USA

17823 posts since 5/24/2005

Iran action over by fall, Elections are in November, summer over, history suggests price of natural gas and crude oil way down, I M H O. But as a broke retired petroleum geologist, what do I know. I should have stuck to dowsing! ;-). Brad

May 6, 2026 - 10:58:05 PM
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Players Union Member

rvrose

USA

1146 posts since 6/29/2007

I would bet on it going down by November.

Rick

May 7, 2026 - 6:03:12 AM

Buddur

USA

4409 posts since 10/23/2004

I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Conflicts drag out for years, regardless of what those in charge want you to believe.

May 7, 2026 - 1:45:46 PM

4981 posts since 4/29/2012

Look at oil futures prices. If the price for October delivery is higher than now then fill. If lower then wait.

Just checked. October oil is A LOT cheaper than spot, Wait.

Edited by - AndrewD on 05/07/2026 13:48:54

May 7, 2026 - 3:48:06 PM
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chuckv97

Canada

79079 posts since 10/5/2013

quote:
Originally posted by AndrewD

Look at oil futures prices. If the price for October delivery is higher than now then fill. If lower then wait.

Just checked. October oil is A LOT cheaper than spot, Wait.


My cynical self says that's a setup.. they want you to wait knowing prices will still be high in the fall and that everybody has to fill their tanks for winter heating. But my pollyanna self says the war'll be over, everything's back to kumbaya , and merrily we go round the mulberry bush..... 

Edited by - chuckv97 on 05/07/2026 15:48:58

May 7, 2026 - 5:20:35 PM
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Players Union Member

slammer

USA

5749 posts since 12/30/2008

Chuck, you owe me a new keyboard!!!
Slammer!!!

May 8, 2026 - 3:55:01 AM
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4981 posts since 4/29/2012

quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97
quote:
Originally posted by AndrewD

Look at oil futures prices. If the price for October delivery is higher than now then fill. If lower then wait.

Just checked. October oil is A LOT cheaper than spot, Wait.


My cynical self says that's a setup.. they want you to wait knowing prices will still be high in the fall and that everybody has to fill their tanks for winter heating. But my pollyanna self says the war'll be over, everything's back to kumbaya , and merrily we go round the mulberry bush..... 


I'm a cynic too. Future prices are based on a hive mind of greed informed by the best data. So a far better predictor than a bunch of old banjo players.

May 8, 2026 - 5:27:11 AM
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45081 posts since 3/5/2008

Pay...no mind.. to the banjo player in the corner.......

May 8, 2026 - 5:29:43 AM

9395 posts since 9/5/2006

but but but , andrew banjo players are wise ..considerate and patient folks to deal with ... don't sell them short on knowing the price of oil in october ....

May 8, 2026 - 9:04:12 AM
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chuckv97

Canada

79079 posts since 10/5/2013

How’s ’bout the price of à 1934 Granada, eh…..?

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