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The Washington Post reports that the incoming Trump administration is promising “historic tariff hikes,” including 60% on goods from China. This would have a very significant effect on the banjo market, with so many parts and instruments coming from overseas, notably China. Were I a purveyor of RK, Gold Tone and other Chinese-made banjos, I would be trying to get all the inventory I could as quickly as possible. Who knows what tariffs would do to the cost of European parts, notably from Prucha. All stringed instruments are likely to see huge price increasses when (and if?) the Trump tariffs go intro effect. Everything imported will cost more. Whether that will help American makers remains to be seen. If you’re contemplating buying a Chinese-made instrument, I’d get to it sooner rather than later.
I will be interesting to see how it will all pan out. Usually when sanctions are imposed on countries they up the anti. It could make American made banjo’s even more expensive around the world. Who knows it could shuffle things around a bit. Rickard in Canada, Prucha in Europe could become bigger sellers outside the US. What happens internally is anyone’s guess hopefully it will favor smaller builders like the Zack Hoyt’s of the world.
It is now too late to place orders with China to avoid the tariffs. Containers take 60 to as much as 90 days to get in the US depending on the price. Anything ordered today will land next year and be subjected to the new tariffs. That timeline does not include production, which takes time.
Add that there is a scramble to get containers this time of year to get goods on the water before CNY.
I just got 4 new machines shipped from Taiwan for my day job and they are expected to land Jan 20 to port. Tariffs will likely be in effect by then dispute me ordering the machines in August.
In other words, that ship has sailed.
Why didn't you tell us about this last week?
It's rare for a president to get everything he wants, even with Congressional support, or even in a single realm like tariffs.
1) Campaigning is not governing, although Trump is something of an outlier in this regard. What one says to get elected isn't necessarily what one does when governing.
2) Business leaders and political advisors may be able to convince him to back down on at least some tariffs, as tariffs can backfire in multiple ways.
3) Tariffs, or the threat thereof, are often bargaining chips to be used to negotiate with the other side. So the mere threat of tariffs may open up paths to trade and other economic compromise, and the threatened tariffs may be reduced or even abandoned.
Time will tell.
Edited by - reubenstump on 11/09/2024 06:02:58
Tariffs will be targeted. Consumers end up paying tariffs, meaning a 60% tariff on everything Chinese would spike inflation to levels we have never seen. Even if there is unfair advantage, I imagine banjos will not be on the short list for immediate tariffs. I think he will target American companies making goods overseas to compel them to onshore production.
Brian & Lorenzo, I think, have nailed it. It is not anything I am going to worry about.
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Originally posted by martyjoeI will be interesting to see how it will all pan out. Usually when sanctions are imposed on countries they up the anti. It could make American made banjo’s even more expensive around the world. Who knows it could shuffle things around a bit. Rickard in Canada, Prucha in Europe could become bigger sellers outside the US. What happens internally is anyone’s guess hopefully it will favor smaller builders like the Zack Hoyt’s of the world.
What American maker other than Deering exports banjos in any quantity large enough to be severely affected by retaliatory tariffs? A drastic increase in the price of Goodtimes might hurt their share of the beginner instrument market. But I think one-man custom shops that turn out banjos by the dozens, not thousands, will continue to sell everything they can make.
Who knows how much Rickard and Prucha currently sell outside the US?
Deering, Gold Tone, Recording King & Epiphone have a strong retail presence in Europe.
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Originally posted by martyjoeDeering, Gold Tone, Recording King & Epiphone have a strong retail presence in Europe.
Only Deering among those makes all its instruments in the USA.
All the other brands are made in China, by or for American companies, who I assume would still have to pay an import tariff on the instruments they bring into the country.
Gold Tone did, however, buy Ome earlier this year and is now making Ome banjos in the USA. Wayne from Gold Tone says they expect to ramp up production far beyond what Ome ever did under previous ownership. So maybe they'l produce enough to have an overseas presence for a truly made-in-USA banjo.
As long as we're talking ECONOMICS, and not POLITICS, I suppose this topic might go on forever.
If it costs somebody a dime more for a part, that cost will be passed on to the final customer, not to the manufacturer of the part.
Tariffs also give the person with the power to impose them the opportunity to pick winners and losers. Which country and which industries get them imposed, and on the other side of the coin, which industries here suddenly benefit from their foreign competitors suddenly having to charge higher prices for their products over here. Then there’s the concept of exemptions. A good game for a transactional person who has suddenly come into the power to wield tariffs wherever in the world they want.
My business has already seen the impact of tariffs enacted in the previous Trump administration and continued through the Biden administration. I own a custom closet business and our accessory items are manufactured in both Asia and Europe have double in wholesale cost in the past several years. This has cut sales of closet accessory items for our business down to almost nothing and made the cost of closet rods, which are essential, soar. I don't doubt that further tariffs will impact a wide array of products, particularly extruded aluminum and steel products.
The purpose of a tariff is to artificially increase the cost of imported products for the purpose of making those products less competitive on the market.
The solution is simple. If you don't want to pay extra for Chinese parts, don't buy from a Chinese supplier. Get your metal parts from Rickard or Prucha or any US-based supplier. Then you won't be subject to Chinese tariffs. That's the whole point.
Whether that's a good thing or not is a different conversation, one that would likely get locked quickly.
Edited by - KCJones on 11/10/2024 05:52:58
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Originally posted by KCJonesThe purpose of a tariff is to artificially increase the cost of imported products for the purpose of making those products less competitive on the market.
The solution is simple. If you don't want to pay extra for Chinese parts, don't buy from a Chinese supplier. Get your metal parts from Rickard or Prucha or any US-based supplier. Then you won't be subject to Chinese tariffs. That's the whole point.
Rickard and Prucha are both imported into the US and will be subject to a proposed 15 to 20% tariff.
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Originally posted by Joel Hooksquote:
Originally posted by KCJonesThe purpose of a tariff is to artificially increase the cost of imported products for the purpose of making those products less competitive on the market.
The solution is simple. If you don't want to pay extra for Chinese parts, don't buy from a Chinese supplier. Get your metal parts from Rickard or Prucha or any US-based supplier. Then you won't be subject to Chinese tariffs. That's the whole point.Rickard and Prucha are both imported into the US and will be subject to a proposed 15 to 20% tariff.
Ah yes very true but it is likely that goods from Canada will have a lower rate than goods from China and for Prucha in the Czech Republic will be somewhere in between. Then goods coming into Europe from the USA could be hit harder than goods from China. That's the merry go round that pushes inflation.
Maybe it will spur more domestic production. That's a good thing right?
Too simplistic. Punishing China with a 60% tariff does not mean that goods will forever go up by 60% nor that the US will produce the goods.
Taiwan, Vietnam, All of Africa, Guam, Phillipines, SKorea, Japan, Europe etc can all produce the same products at a slightly higher rate. US automation will be spurred to bring prices down on their recaptured market share.
Its not China goods or US goods. Has never worked that way. These Tariffs are simply to shift manufacturing out of China.
I can still buy Russian Nesting dolls for 5 to 10 bucks at hobby lobby. Yet, Russian tariffs are infinite.
A company like Gold Tone could set up an assembly operation in Europe where the Chinese parts it uses would presumably cost much less. I don’t know if GT sells enough in Europe to justify that.
I am thinking the price of Bible's will likely soar.
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Originally posted by Bill RogersA company like Gold Tone could set up an assembly operation in Europe where the Chinese parts it uses would presumably cost much less. I don’t know if GT sells enough in Europe to justify that.
It's common practice for a company or industry which has had tariffs levied on it to reroute their products or services through other countries in an effort to circumvent the tariffs. How much effort they, or the levying country put into foiling or tracking such efforts is variable.
Funny how none of this mattered before the election
Let's be careful and keep any controversial politics out of this discussion, please.
So far, so good with a few pushing the envelope.
This is an interesting discussion, let's try to keep it clean.
As an aside, in the song “Old Home Place”, does Tony Rice on the Rounder 0044 album sing “the tariffs took all my pay” or “the taverns took all my pay”? Inquiring minds in my neck of the woods would like to know.
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Originally posted by chuckv97As an aside, in the song “Old Home Place”, does Tony Rice on the Rounder 0044 album sing “the tariffs took all my pay” or “the taverns took all my pay”? Inquiring minds in my neck of the woods would like to know.
Sounds like "tariffs" to me on both the Crowe and Dillards versions.
It does sound like tariffs, but I sing it taverns because that makes more sense to me.
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