To me the value of a banjo and the collectibility are two different things. You could argue that an old California Fender is collectible but their values have not really gone anywhere. Stellings are collectible and did get a bump after closing their doors but do seem to be coming back to earth. Modern Gibsons have always carried that mystique from the prewar years but reality is they are not the same and never will be. Most are  just average sounding instruments with an average build quality. It's mainly nostalgia for a bygone era that keeps them collectible and priced accordingly. As us old timers who cherished the Gibson Mastertone name fade away I think Gibson's new or old will also begin to find equilibrium. Rarity will always be the deciding factor. There are a lot of modern Gibsons out there.

If you live long enough, and society does not have some level of collapse akin to what happened in the 1930’s, then pretty much all banjos will eventually rise in value due to age, rarity, attrition, ect.

If you are trying to predict what banjos will be worth a lot more in 10-20 years, no way of knowing. Depends completely on musical trends, who is playing what ect.

If 20 years from now, the Taylor Swift 2044 equivalent comes on stage playing a 1962 Harmony tenor banjo, tenor banjos from the 1960’s will be the thing to have. If they are playing Italian bagpipes, that will be the thing.

If you are trying to figure out the market for investment purposes…good luck.

i have to disagree with the idea that all banjos will increase in value due to rariety. I would propose that all banjos are destined to decrease in value in the future if trends in music continue as they are. The banjo has seen a steady decline in popularity over the years and trends point to that continuing. Even if im wrong and I hope I am about banjo popularity..
Collect banjos because you love them, not as an investment.
A modern high end banjo is very expensive to make, high end wood, material etc all have had a great increase in price recently, add in the time and cost of labor to produce a high end banjo means modern banjos have to sell for high prices or luthers wouldnt make them. So thats why new high end banjos sell for 5k or more. And as weve seen with more makers when they retire the prices dont go up, infact they usually go down. that is to do with the high cost vrs whats availble on the market. You bought a stelling a few years back new for 5k, its selling for 3 now. And if you have 5 to buy a collectable banjo, that prewar gibson with a frank neat neck is a lot more appealing to a lot of people than a recent stelling that just lost 2k in value.

Even with the high end gibson its purely speculative that prices will continue to increase, the generation that took the prices from the thousands to the hundreds of thousand is getting very old these days. The next generation is here and is showing it has money, but the generation after that? My generation, are people in their forties like me going to be buying the 150k banjos in the same numbers? Im not sure about that.

All that said, my take on the current state of collectable banjos:
High end prewar gibsons are the top dog, and will continue to be unless there is some massive shift in popular music.
Krako is a hot modern brand that is proving desirable , even on the resale market.

Greg Rich Era Gibsons, especially the granadas and the custom shop models are commanding big money and are highly desired by collectors right now. 
Most other modern brands dont seem to hold value over original price currently.

Early minstrel banjos are commanding higher and higher money, bouchers in particular, even in poor condition have sold at auction for a lot more than collectors had expected recently.

high end folk / classic era banjos prices seem to be in a bit of a slump.

I really know nothing about modern Bluegrass banjos, so I will leave that to the more knowledgeable folks here.
But as far as 19th century banjos, rarity and/or uniqueness is what drives prices.
I recently got a circa 1850 tackhead—there are not a lot of them to be found, and I paid accordingly.

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Originally posted by Alvin Conder

If you live long enough, and society does not have some level of collapse akin to what happened in the 1930’s, then pretty much all banjos will eventually rise in value due to age, rarity, attrition, ect.

If you are trying to predict what banjos will be worth a lot more in 10-20 years, no way of knowing. Depends completely on musical trends, who is playing what ect.

If 20 years from now, the Taylor Swift 2044 equivalent comes on stage playing a 1962 Harmony tenor banjo, tenor banjos from the 1960’s will be the thing to have. If they are playing Italian bagpipes, that will be the thing.

If you are trying to figure out the market for investment purposes…good luck.

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Good point. If Earl Scruggs had played a Bacon & Day Silver Bell, how much would a prewar Granada be worth now?

I find this whole phenomena with the Pre-War Gibsons quite interesting, especially in how it may apply to other banjos no longer in production. A person could argue that the later retired manufacturers quality may be better than the Gibsons across the board. The earlier Gibson banjos may improve thru seasoning of the years which is a plus… The Scruggs/Stanley/Crowe/Osborn etal effect certainly drives their value. However, to my thinking, there seems to be a lack of continuity/documentation of the Gibson line… serial numbers, conversions from one type to another, line of ownership…. I recently bought Jim Mills’ “Gibson Mastertone” and "Spann’s Guide to Gibson” to get a handle on the Pre-War phenomena. I haven’t quite resolved it in my mind but it does seem to exist in the playability and the sound from those instruments. Admittedly I have not had the good fortune to even have one in my hands, but look forward to doing so. My thinking and research are more about how their value (when I say value, I’m talking about how banjos are favored by players, not necessarily their monetary value) may translate into the Stellings, Heartlands, LeVans, Wildwoods etal. At this point, I think it will take 50 years or so before the later manufactured banjos enter the exalted status in which the Prewar currently occupy. It will be then that banjo pickers will be saying this is what Tony, Alan, Bela, Noam, Ryan, Alison, (that list goes on and on) played. These banjos will live on for decades if not centuries and I think players will value them more as time goes on.
Willie

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Originally posted by Alvin Conder

If you live long enough, and society does not have some level of collapse akin to what happened in the 1930’s, then pretty much all banjos will eventually rise in value due to age, rarity, attrition, ect.

If you are trying to predict what banjos will be worth a lot more in 10-20 years, no way of knowing. Depends completely on musical trends, who is playing what ect.

If 20 years from now, the Taylor Swift 2044 equivalent comes on stage playing a 1962 Harmony tenor banjo, tenor banjos from the 1960’s will be the thing to have. If they are playing Italian bagpipes, that will be the thing.

If you are trying to figure out the market for investment purposes…good luck.

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Wait a minute, where can you get Italian bagpipes? Is there a bagpipehangout.com?

What defines collectable? Is it something that people will pay over the odds for? Judging by the prices put up for Clifford Essex banjos then they must be collectable especially when you're looking at models like the Paragon. I'm fairly sure a Cammayer zither banjo is a collectable.

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Originally posted by Gwen Taunton

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Originally posted by Alvin Conder

If you live long enough, and society does not have some level of collapse akin to what happened in the 1930’s, then pretty much all banjos will eventually rise in value due to age, rarity, attrition, ect.

If you are trying to predict what banjos will be worth a lot more in 10-20 years, no way of knowing. Depends completely on musical trends, who is playing what ect.

If 20 years from now, the Taylor Swift 2044 equivalent comes on stage playing a 1962 Harmony tenor banjo, tenor banjos from the 1960’s will be the thing to have. If they are playing Italian bagpipes, that will be the thing.

If you are trying to figure out the market for investment purposes…good luck.

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Wait a minute, where can you get Italian bagpipes? Is there a bagpipehangout.com?

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If they can be found you can probably get them here.http://Johnwalshbagpipes.com

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Originally posted by GrahamHawker

What defines collectable? Is it something that people will pay over the odds for? Judging by the prices put up for Clifford Essex banjos then they must be collectable especially when you're looking at models like the Paragon. I'm fairly sure a Cammayer zither banjo is a collectable.

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With the exception of Paragon tenor banjos and Paragon conversion to tenor banjos, are people "paying over the odds" for CE banjos?  I watch closely and Concert Grands, Professionals, and Metal Hoop Specials barely break the $500-$1000 mark on actual sales (I'm sure there are full retail exceptions like in the case of JAT buying banjos on ebay for nothing and marking them up).

But "collectible" and "high monetary value" are not mutually exclusive.  Something can be "collectible" and worthless. 

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Originally posted by GrahamHawker

What defines collectable? Is it something that people will pay over the odds for? Judging by the prices put up for Clifford Essex banjos then they must be collectable especially when you're looking at models like the Paragon. I'm fairly sure a Cammayer zither banjo is a collectable.

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I think some tenor banjoists 'veneration' of the CE Paragon and the pricing that is a consequence is like many other unrealistic fixations. It's mostly fueled by herd instinct and misplaced competitiveness by people who could take time to explore but instead lazily buy into what they see other people (who are just as lazy and unimaginative as they are) coveting.  Most experienced musicians will own that 90%+ of what constitutes a player's 'sound' is the player and by comparison the instrument only a small input. It takes confidence (and curiousity) to question the 'brilliance' of the Emperor's new clothes when everyone else is in agreement about how wonderful they are.  Exploring and acquiring your own knowledge takes time and effort and those with deep enough pockets would rather the quick conformity that chimes with the crowd. And hey, the high price only goes to prove they must be right...right? Uh, no.

Collecting is a different mentality altogether. The collector seeks to acquire whatever bauble it is that interests them at any given moment. At root acquisition and ownership is the motivation, though they often don't realise or admit that to themselves. The inveterate old collector Reuben Reuben lived in a house crammed with vintage banjos/wall-hangers. He couldn't play banjo; that wasn't his purpose. Amusingly when his interest in banjos faded he collected vintage fridges and cookers. There is in collecting, an element of compulsion.

My understanding is that CE Paragons are the 'pre-war Gibsons' of the Irish tenor world because that's what Barney McKenna played - ignoring the fact that his had been retrofitted with a Gibson archtop tonering .

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Originally posted by Pomeroy

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Originally posted by GrahamHawker

What defines collectable? Is it something that people will pay over the odds for? Judging by the prices put up for Clifford Essex banjos then they must be collectable especially when you're looking at models like the Paragon. I'm fairly sure a Cammayer zither banjo is a collectable.

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I think some tenor banjoists 'veneration' of the CE Paragon and the pricing that is a consequence is like many other unrealistic fixations. It's mostly fueled by herd instinct and misplaced competitiveness by people who could take time to explore but instead lazily buy into what they see other people (who are just as lazy and unimaginative as they are) coveting.  Most experienced musicians will own that 90%+ of what constitutes a player's 'sound' is the player and by comparison the instrument only a small input. It takes confidence (and curiousity) to question the 'brilliance' of the Emperor's new clothes when everyone else is in agreement about how wonderful they are.  Exploring and acquiring your own knowledge takes time and effort and those with deep enough pockets would rather the quick conformity that chimes with the crowd. And hey, the high price only goes to prove they must be right...right? Uh, no.

Collecting is a different mentality altogether. The collector seeks to acquire whatever bauble it is that interests them at any given moment. At root acquisition and ownership is the motivation, though they often don't realise or admit that to themselves. The inveterate old collector Reuben Reuben lived in a house crammed with vintage banjos/wall-hangers. He couldn't play banjo; that wasn't his purpose. Amusingly when his interest in banjos faded he collected vintage fridges and cookers. There is in collecting, an element of compulsion.

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He also had a musket phase.

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Collecting is a different mentality altogether. The collector seeks to acquire whatever bauble it is that interests them at any given moment. At root acquisition and ownership is the motivation, though they often don't realise or admit that to themselves. The inveterate old collector Reuben Reuben lived in a house crammed with vintage banjos/wall-hangers. He couldn't play banjo; that wasn't his purpose. Amusingly when his interest in banjos faded he collected vintage fridges and cookers. There is in collecting, an element of compulsion.

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I would have loved hanging out with Reuben! What an interesting character!

Bacon and Day NE Ultras have quite a price and collector community.

When I was knee deep in the vintage string instrument trade in the mid to late 1970s, the market was East-West Coast and overseas. Europe was buying tenor banjos and Japan was sucking up any older quality banjos. Buyers were often well to do collectors--people with six and seven digit incomes. SMALL groups of rich friends would start collecting a particular category of instruments--drive up prices, and when they all had their collection filled out, they would stop buying and dealers would be looking at instruments that they paid too much for. A few collectors can have an oversized effect (often temporary) on prices.
In the1970s, the instruments Gibson, Fender and Martin were producing were of poor quality, and this drove the demand for obviously better older used instruments among working musicians. Not the case anymore. The big three are back on track and they have lots of competition from smaller companies competing on quality. The utilitarian need for vintage instruments is less. There are lots of great sounding and playing modern instruments. There are probably several hundred small independent banjo makers in the USA.
The internet has allowed anyone to deal in vintage instruments--ebay, Reverb, here. Most of the well respected vintage dealers are well respected because they serviced their instruments--no unpleasant surprises. The stuff being sold from basements around the USA can be hit or miss in terms of playability. Folks buying instruments from amateur dealers can end up with someone else's problem instead of a majestic sounding and playing instrument. Its costs $$ and requires skill and experience to get an old instrument back into playing shape. Additionally the obsession with originality means that old worn out tuners are not replaced, another source of aggravation with vintage instruments. Additionally dud vintage instruments tend to get sold and resold and resold failing to deliver on the vintage promise of a great sound. These dud instruments are disproportionately present in the vintage market.
Lots of other reasons for flat prices.

Quality and rarity are constants. In relative terms competition is fugitive.

How about the Frank Neat Stanleytone . Prices seemingly keep rising on those old 2pc flange flame throwers .

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Originally posted by IMBanjoJim

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Collecting is a different mentality altogether. The collector seeks to acquire whatever bauble it is that interests them at any given moment. At root acquisition and ownership is the motivation, though they often don't realise or admit that to themselves. The inveterate old collector Reuben Reuben lived in a house crammed with vintage banjos/wall-hangers. He couldn't play banjo; that wasn't his purpose. Amusingly when his interest in banjos faded he collected vintage fridges and cookers. There is in collecting, an element of compulsion.

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I would have loved hanging out with Reuben! What an interesting character!

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I knew him. Eccentric and obsessive. Yes. Interesting. Not so much.

There is another motivation that is entirely disconnected and calculated in regard to the object. That is financial investment where the physical item is assessed as a commodity. We see that in reports of the often anonymous buyers who are active at the top end of the art market. That market too is subject to fluctuation but buyers trust to the idea that high culture's effect on establishing 'icon' status is a long-term security in upholding 'value'. Not relevant (as far as I know) to banjos! As a poster pointed out above, the present obsession with pre-war Gibsons is largely generational and related to popular nostalgia. Every generation recreates nostalgia in it's own image. That process has no long-term view or security at all.

The OP said "collector" status so I will ask is anybody "collecting" a Gibson part banjo. They all want a true 100% original Gibson banjo and that is where the demand is. People will pay top dollar to get a parts banjo to replicate the original but those banjos are "players" not "collectors". I'm not in the 5 string world but that is the feeling I get.

The OP refers to a 'collector status'. That idea has a huge amount to do with the association applied to a particular make of banjo. No-one today replicates the association influence of Earl Scruggs. Individual banjo players will still prefer and desire specific banjos, some of those banjos will become harder to find. We've lived through a banjo-making golden period; therefore in 10-20 years there will be a bigger pool of quality used banjos around. So the likelihood is that the search will be more individual and diverse. And diversity, because it's less easy to 'predict' and forms a wider spread, has less of an inflation effect. No single banjo becomes a fixation to disproportionately focus competition and hike prices to an absurd level.

Beyond 20 years and we may as well wet our finger and hold it in the wind as far as knowing what musicians will be doing, let alone what they will desire. Society and culture changes ever more rapidly and that change will only speed up.

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Originally posted by DSmoke

The OP said "collector" status so I will ask is anybody "collecting" a Gibson part banjo. They all want a true 100% original Gibson banjo and that is where the demand is. People will pay top dollar to get a parts banjo to replicate the original but those banjos are "players" not "collectors". I'm not in the 5 string world but that is the feeling I get.

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It depends on the parts, if  a high end banjo pot like a style 6 or an original flathead pot people still collect them with a  five string conversion neck. Also there are collectors without the financial resources who will collect anything gibson they can get their hands on, including parts banjos. But that doesn't mean they are truly collectible banjos. Or does it?

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Originally posted by KCJones

A simple question brought up in another thread, that perhaps warrants it's own topic:

Are there any banjo makes/models that have attained 'collector' status with value increasing after end-of-production, in the same way as Gibson Mastertones?

Wildwood and Reiter banjos have actually gone down in value since their retirement. Same with older Ode resonator models, and Liberty Banjos, and Great Lakes Banjos... the list goes on and on, and includes basically every banjo maker except Gibson. All top quality brands in their time, with a strong following and even some professional endorsements, that largely faded into obscurity after stopping production and have not seen any type of upward price movement. Vintage Vega and Fairbanks banjos, with some exceptions for the top models, are priced as players instruments not collectors instruments. Stelling spiked at first but they seem to be going back to normal with sales happening in the 3k range. The same with Boulder-made Ome banjos, they seem to be spiking right now but time will tell if that holds especially with GT taking up production.

It seems to me that Gibson Mastertone pricing is anomalous and not likely to be replicated by other makes/models. But there's much more knowledgeable people here so maybe I'm missing something.

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Original Boucher, Levi Brown, David Jacobs, Ashborn. Basically the earliest banjos, especially with the recent popularity of Rhiannon Giddens and her almost exclusive use of a Levi Brown reproduction.

 I've even seen a fairly steep rise in the value of Dobson 1867 and 1878 patent banjos, since they don't often pop up anymore, in original condition. Note: They must have the heel stamps.

 Blaine

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Originally posted by tbchappe

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Originally posted by KCJones

A simple question brought up in another thread, that perhaps warrants it's own topic:

Are there any banjo makes/models that have attained 'collector' status with value increasing after end-of-production, in the same way as Gibson Mastertones?

Wildwood and Reiter banjos have actually gone down in value since their retirement. Same with older Ode resonator models, and Liberty Banjos, and Great Lakes Banjos... the list goes on and on, and includes basically every banjo maker except Gibson. All top quality brands in their time, with a strong following and even some professional endorsements, that largely faded into obscurity after stopping production and have not seen any type of upward price movement. Vintage Vega and Fairbanks banjos, with some exceptions for the top models, are priced as players instruments not collectors instruments. Stelling spiked at first but they seem to be going back to normal with sales happening in the 3k range. The same with Boulder-made Ome banjos, they seem to be spiking right now but time will tell if that holds especially with GT taking up production.

It seems to me that Gibson Mastertone pricing is anomalous and not likely to be replicated by other makes/models. But there's much more knowledgeable people here so maybe I'm missing something.

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Original Boucher, Levi Brown, David Jacobs, Ashborn. Basically the earliest banjos, especially with the recent popularity of Rhiannon Giddens and her almost exclusive use of a Levi Brown reproduction.

 I've even seen a fairly steep rise in the value of Dobson 1867 and 1878 patent banjos, since they don't often pop up anymore, in original condition. Note: They must have the heel stamps.

 Blaine

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Ashborn-- as far as I know, (as well as the people who have seen the most of these) no two Ashborn banjos are identical.  On the other hand, Ashborn's guitar output was remarkably consistent across the entire production run, the earliest guitars being nearly exactly the same size and shape as the the latest. 

Because of that I have concluded that Ashborn never make banjos in a production capacity but merely making a handful of one off banjo prototypes.