I came across this graph showing the number of deaths in the world. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-deaths-per-year
The "spike" in the last few years shows quite a bit more than 6.8 or 7 million. Is there an obvious ... or even not so obvious... explanation for that discrepancy?
[And I'm hoping for more than "yes" or "no."]
Edit: I noticed the "change country" feature in the upper left, after I hit "post." Looking at a few countries in Africa shows a smaller spike than I would have anticipated.
Edited by - Owen on 03/23/2023 12:23:59
We had a pandemic where more people died than usual at that time
Antoine, I'm asking about the diff between the +/- 21 million additional that the graph shows and the 6.8-7 million attributed to the pandemic.
Re. some countries in Africa, my logic says that poverty would lead to reduced vaccinations which should (?) lead to a more pronounced spike.... but that's not what I initially saw, though there are more countries I haven't looked at than I have looked at.
Edited by - Owen on 03/23/2023 12:40:01
Africa uses Ivermectin quite frequently for Malaria...almost like a vitamin over there.
quote:
Originally posted by OwenAntoine, I'm asking about the diff between the +/- 21 million additional that the graph shows and the 6.8-7 million attributed to the pandemic.
I think you mean 12 million. You needed to dig into the figures. For instance India has an increase of 4 million while the covid deaths are reported as 500,000. But this reporting is considered to be quite poor and estimates are far higher and I can see figures up to 3.8 million. On its own thats a large part of the missing 5 million.
IMO the discrepancy is maybe due to what consisted as covid being the cause of death according to the stats takers.
Many many other people died of related things who maybe did not figure in the main 'died of covid' headcount. ?
As for Africa having lower death increases, my guess without seeing any of the actual data would be because of less data collection over there? So less people being counted, artificially making the number lower?
Edited by - ChunoTheDog on 03/23/2023 14:30:56
quote:
Originally posted by GrahamHawkerquote:
Originally posted by OwenAntoine, I'm asking about the diff between the +/- 21 million additional that the graph shows and the 6.8-7 million attributed to the pandemic.
I think you mean 12 million. You needed to dig into the figures. For instance India has an increase of 4 million while the covid deaths are reported as 500,000. But this reporting is considered to be quite poor and estimates are far higher and I can see figures up to 3.8 million. On its own thats a large part of the missing 5 million.
How I came up with 21 million was to look at the year-over-year factor [leaving the spike out of it.] for several years. That factor ranged from 1.0004 to 1.01 so I arbitrarily picked 1.005.
This gave me the following rough calculations of "expected" death numbers: 2020 = 58.3 million / 2021 = 58.6 million / 2022 = 61.5 million.
However the actual numbers for those years were: 2020 = 63.2 million / 2021 = 69.3 million / 2022 = 67 million.
The diff between actual and expected for those three years is about: 2020 = 5 million / 2021 = 11 million / 2022 = 5 million.
5 + 11 + 5 = 21.
Now you know why I put "competent" in the title.
...and like you used to see on business letters: E.&O.E.
The excess death due to covid (directly or indirectly) is estimated to be up to 17 million, which puts it closer to the 21 million that the graph shows. Plus, out of the 21 million, you would need to subract the natural increase due to a growing population (another million over two years), Now we're at 17 million vs. 19 million.
However, to answer you question regarding a statistical analysis, you can use time series analysis for that, like these researchers: ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9946455/
Thanks, John.
Isn't the natural increase accounted for in my X 1.005 year-over-year factor?
Most of the sites I've checked [eg. W.H.O. and statista, among others] give a current count of 6,873,500 give-or-take, so yes 17 million would account for a l-o-t of the diff.
Edited by - Owen on 03/23/2023 15:29:57
