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Sep 20, 2021 - 3:22:41 PM
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34337 posts since 3/5/2008

How did you know...!?

Late in july..
I had him prepare the ground work.. to pull $ from the market...
At a moment's notice... (It takes 4 days)....um bidness days..

I told him to wait fer me call...most likely it would be late in August...

Turned out to be last week I made the call..N made the move...

The market tanked.....
I read the...tea leaves....

N to answer his question...
How did I know..?

I just told him ...everbody knows...
I'm Dumb..........
Don't know nuthin....
N ...got the grades to proove it......

Just ah nut job...

Sep 20, 2021 - 8:12:07 PM

58248 posts since 12/14/2005

Corn granulations!


Sep 20, 2021 - 9:06:34 PM
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donc

Canada

6731 posts since 2/9/2010

A few years ago the markets were more stable. The volatile ups and downs were not as prevalent. A few people with graphs, charts, and calculators sat around calling the shots. Today it's more like a race track where crazy people place large bets based on the sound of a name or what they had for breakfast that morning. Today the market seems to be lead by a crowd of rich people who go by the emotional tide. Some of the privileged few know exactly what will be triggering the market in a few more days.Two days ago a large Chinese real estate company announced that they were falling into the red to the tune of billions. I would guess that a few Chinese investors today picked up a lot of good bargains on the Toronto market. The federal election today also gave people the shakes but as of tonight we have almost the same results as the last election. Tomorrow at 6:00 [Pacific time] the markets open and it starts all over again.

Sep 21, 2021 - 5:53:46 AM

figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

I do not think that ..that is how the leadership in that country is going to react..
Reports are very differnt...

Sep 21, 2021 - 6:51:48 AM
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rinemb

USA

13932 posts since 5/24/2005

four days to park your funds. Seems a long time. I will check with my guy. He is with a large institution. Maybe instead of pulling it and banking the transfer, one could park it in house, say with bond funds or money markets. Of course, my can would not have to be very large-I can bury it in the yard-if need be? Brad

Sep 21, 2021 - 7:16:27 AM
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12482 posts since 1/15/2005

Way to go Fig ..... good for you ...... but here is the problem. The market is always correcting or adjusting and if you follow financial "stuff" someone is always telling you it is the time to either get out of the market or get into the market. If someone actually knew, then they would be the wealthiest person on earth. They don't know. You just can't time the market! Unlike what you did, way too many people get scared when the market starts to fall and get out when it is way down because they don't want to risk it going further down. A year later they regret it, but it's too late. During times like these I just don't even look at my portfolio on a day to day basis!

Sep 21, 2021 - 8:04:23 AM
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banjo bill-e

Tuvalu

11580 posts since 2/22/2007

Outside of timing market swings to jump back in, if one pulls out of the market, where would you invest those funds?
Our cash is losing money daily. I tend to stay in the market out of ignorance of what else to do, but so far that has worked well for me in the long run. My BIL sold out in a panic at the very bottom of the last big recession and never recovered the substantial losses. I did nothing and recovered completely. I don't take any credit for how it worked out.

Sep 21, 2021 - 8:21:10 AM
Players Union Member

rinemb

USA

13932 posts since 5/24/2005

My layman thought is...I am paying an expert to make me money, based on a plan we both have designed and agreed to. I expect an expert to do better than I can do myself, whether its a contractor, plumber, etc and including a "financial advisor." Especially if that advisor's company makes money either way the market swings, I am still paying for the service-one way or another.
So...my expectation is that if the markets: Dow, S&P, etc. fall, say 05%, my portfolio should only fall 2.5% or so, and on the other hand, if the "markets" rise by 05%, I might only gain 2.5% or so. They should be able to out perform me and the general market trends????
Brad

Sep 21, 2021 - 10:39:14 AM

donc

Canada

6731 posts since 2/9/2010

My biggest mistake was relying on some mutual funds for too many years. The concept of diversification is a good one but with an organized fund there are too many noses in the trough. Every year the fund would deliver a mediocre return of valuation but the dividends all went into the pot which I never saw myself. When the fund retailer was told I wanted out he looked at me like an injured child. When he asked why I was leaving I told him that nobody in the real business world would normally pay someone to accomplish nothing. Today I have a few blue chip stocks that pay regular dividends as well as periodic valuation increases. The best strategy is to only invest what you can afford to loose. Cash is not an attractive investment but I like to believe that money will someday be worth something.

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:10:22 AM
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YellowSkyBlueSun

Virgin Islands (U.S.)

416 posts since 5/11/2021

Why would anyone ever pull money out of the market, ever? What crash are you talking even about? Todays crab market? The 2.5% loss in the last week? the 3% loss in the last month? Or do you mean the 10% gain in the last 6 months? or the 33% gain in the last 12 months? Or by crash, do you mean the 100% gain in the last 5 years? I'm being a bit rhetorical here, so don't take it the wrong way. But I can't help but chuckle whenever people talk about crashes and 'timing the market'.

In younger investment circles, we have new wisdom. Basing a 2020 investment strategy on 1965 rules is foolish. Stocks only go up, if you think the market is down you just need to zoom out. The fact of the matter is that the stock market is a giant ponzi scheme, propped up by fake currency printed by a private bank. If the stock market ever actually crashes, for real, financial losses will be the last of our worries. The only way the US stock market will ever actually crash is if there's a monetary crisis and the dollar collapses as the world currency. If that happens, the only thing that will matter is gold, silver, lead, and steel. Beyond that happening, it's just a dip and you should keep buying.

My question is this: So now you pulled out. Just before a 3% dip. Good deal, you skipped that loss. So now, how much USD do you hold? Or is it in bonds now? What gains are you seeing on that, or should I say what losses due to the near 10% inflation we're currently experiencing. When do you plan on getting back in? Because now you're missing out on gains. Every day the market will go back up, and now you're faced with the decision of when to buy back in. And if you don't buy back in soon, the train will keep moving up and you'll be left at the station.

Nobody ever got rich by being scared of risk. Volatility is the best way to make a lot of money.

I'm buying this dip. Thank you all for selling me your discounted stocks. 


$BTC 100K EOY
 

Edited by - YellowSkyBlueSun on 09/21/2021 11:17:56

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:20:22 AM

heavy5

USA

1866 posts since 11/3/2016

quote:
Originally posted by BanjoLink

Way to go Fig ..... good for you ...... but here is the problem. The market is always correcting or adjusting and if you follow financial "stuff" someone is always telling you it is the time to either get out of the market or get into the market. If someone actually knew, then they would be the wealthiest person on earth. They don't know. You just can't time the market! Unlike what you did, way too many people get scared when the market starts to fall and get out when it is way down because they don't want to risk it going further down. A year later they regret it, but it's too late. During times like these I just don't even look at my portfolio on a day to day basis!


Just what my wife suggests when the market (lately) is sinking & I whine ---- " just forget about it & ignore it for awhile " 

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:20:40 AM
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Texasbanjo (Moderator)

USA

26395 posts since 8/3/2003

I would say that if you're afraid of a little paper loss when the market goes down then you need to stay out of the market. I don't know how many ups and down Dave and I weathered during the years, but we always rolled with the punches and the market always went back up and we eventually got our paper loses back and more.

Now, while I'm far from rich, I am comfortable and don't have to live from paycheck to paycheck (or social security check to ss check).

One does have need the intestinal fortitude to live through the bad times so you can enjoy the good ones.

Fig, I'm glad you got out and didn't lose any money. Now, when you feel right about it, invest again and see if you can increase your investment earnings.

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:21:24 AM

YellowSkyBlueSun

Virgin Islands (U.S.)

416 posts since 5/11/2021

quote:
Originally posted by rinemb

four days to park your funds. Seems a long time. I will check with my guy. He is with a large institution. Maybe instead of pulling it and banking the transfer, one could park it in house, say with bond funds or money markets. Of course, my can would not have to be very large-I can bury it in the yard-if need be? Brad


I feel like this is a really good point that kind of got glossed over. 4 DAYS to move funds??? Please tell us what company you use so we can all avoid them at all costs. Even 401k type plans move funds at close of the next business day. Most brokerages offer near instantaneous moves. 

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:22:37 AM
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figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

Bill-e asked....so...
I will pay off all me igzisting debt.....
I do not have a ton of debt....

I will buy ..or invest in things I may need...

If you beleave that there is no or just a little inflation...

You may be in fer a rude suprise...

Food might become an issue fer many..
So a root cellar n long term storage may be a good thing..

I did not do the solar panel thing...yet...N.. that may be a good thing..

In short...I will invest in meself n living situation...

Till I see safer market times....

Gold copper n silver are good things to have..
As is learning about crypto currency...(bit coin)..

Look at all these things...N be moderate.. with sticking yer toe in the waters..


The sawmill was one such invesment....
Extra bottled propane....

I am lucky...not everybody...has the place n room to do so...

Diesel n gas storage would be nice....but I am not really set up to do that in a big way....


Folks look what is happening to our supply systums..
I see potential trouble ahead....

Sep 21, 2021 - 11:32:24 AM
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figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

TB....

I will loose $... like many folks will or have..just not as much this time..

Yellow sky.... you are not privy to me $ situation...
N...I am..not going to explain...

This is how these things work fer me...
I have studied $...N it's workings most of me life....

Course I have no degree...
So.... let's face it...I am just a dumbass....

Sep 21, 2021 - 12:10:16 PM
Players Union Member

DC5

USA

20396 posts since 6/30/2015

quote:
Originally posted by Texasbanjo

I would say that if you're afraid of a little paper loss when the market goes down then you need to stay out of the market. I don't know how many ups and down Dave and I weathered during the years, but we always rolled with the punches and the market always went back up and we eventually got our paper loses back and more.

Now, while I'm far from rich, I am comfortable and don't have to live from paycheck to paycheck (or social security check to ss check).

One does have need the intestinal fortitude to live through the bad times so you can enjoy the good ones.

Fig, I'm glad you got out and didn't lose any money. Now, when you feel right about it, invest again and see if you can increase your investment earnings.


When the market is down, don't look at your returns, but if you can afford to, buy more.  Take advantage of the lows.  If you can't weather the storms, you have no business being out on the ship. 

Sep 21, 2021 - 12:38 PM

banjo bill-e

Tuvalu

11580 posts since 2/22/2007

Al, excellent response and good solid answers. I have done just a bit of the same in the sense of buying extra propane tanks and arranging to live without gasoline if needed. Solar panels and other off-grid living devices are excellent expenditures right now. I agree that there may be significant supply chain issues in the near future. So I'm stocked with non-perishables and some water and would like the ability to live in reasonable comfort for a few weeks of no power and empty grocery stores and gas stations. A few weeks is all that I can manage, and I doubt that most of my neighbors can manage that. I envy your domestic setup, you are way more prepared and capable than most.

Sep 21, 2021 - 1:45:49 PM
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3939 posts since 4/7/2009

Propane tanks need occasional replacement. Hardware stores won’t fill outdated ones.

Sep 21, 2021 - 1:53:21 PM

3939 posts since 4/7/2009

quote:
Originally posted by YellowSkyBlueSun

Why would anyone ever pull money out of the market, ever? What crash are you talking even about? Todays crab market? The 2.5% loss in the last week? the 3% loss in the last month? Or do you mean the 10% gain in the last 6 months? or the 33% gain in the last 12 months? Or by crash, do you mean the 100% gain in the last 5 years? I'm being a bit rhetorical here, so don't take it the wrong way. But I can't help but chuckle whenever people talk about crashes and 'timing the market'.

In younger investment circles, we have new wisdom. Basing a 2020 investment strategy on 1965 rules is foolish. Stocks only go up, if you think the market is down you just need to zoom out. The fact of the matter is that the stock market is a giant ponzi scheme, propped up by fake currency printed by a private bank. If the stock market ever actually crashes, for real, financial losses will be the last of our worries. The only way the US stock market will ever actually crash is if there's a monetary crisis and the dollar collapses as the world currency. If that happens, the only thing that will matter is gold, silver, lead, and steel. Beyond that happening, it's just a dip and you should keep buying.

My question is this: So now you pulled out. Just before a 3% dip. Good deal, you skipped that loss. So now, how much USD do you hold? Or is it in bonds now? What gains are you seeing on that, or should I say what losses due to the near 10% inflation we're currently experiencing. When do you plan on getting back in? Because now you're missing out on gains. Every day the market will go back up, and now you're faced with the decision of when to buy back in. And if you don't buy back in soon, the train will keep moving up and you'll be left at the station.

Nobody ever got rich by being scared of risk. Volatility is the best way to make a lot of money.

I'm buying this dip. Thank you all for selling me your discounted stocks. 


$BTC 100K EOY
 


+ 1

Sep 21, 2021 - 2:11:08 PM

12482 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by figmo59

TB....

I will loose $... like many folks will or have..just not as much this time..

Yellow sky.... you are not privy to me $ situation...
N...I am..not going to explain...

This is how these things work fer me...
I have studied $...N it's workings most of me life....

Course I have no degree...
So.... let's face it...I am just a dumbass....


Fig ..... I totally understand what you are saying ..... as well as the others.  Each of us have a different situation and it is not a one size fits all problem/solution.  

One thing you, I , BillE, and some others have in common is that we worked for ourselves and in my case, as well as you and the others I mentioned, I never knew where the next paycheck to pay my mortgage, put food on the table, and buy necessities, etc. was going to come from.  Many like my brother, who was a policeman, always knew he was going to get a paycheck and that when he retired he would get a paycheck every month.  There is a lot of stress involved not knowing when or if someone is going to call and pay you for your services.  As a result, I spent my entire life saving for when I retired (although I am still not retired).  I could live, I guess, on social security, but not the way I live now.

In short, folks like me and you (and others mentioned), look at just about everything differently than those who worked for local, state, and federal government and companies that guaranteed a pension (which have been becoming rare for quite a while now).

Sep 21, 2021 - 2:28:41 PM

figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

quote:
Originally posted by YellowSkyBlueSun
quote:
Originally posted by rinemb

four days to park your funds. Seems a long time. I will check with my guy. He is with a large institution. Maybe instead of pulling it and banking the transfer, one could park it in house, say with bond funds or money markets. Of course, my can would not have to be very large-I can bury it in the yard-if need be? Brad


I feel like this is a really good point that kind of got glossed over. 4 DAYS to move funds??? Please tell us what company you use so we can all avoid them at all costs. Even 401k type plans move funds at close of the next business day. Most brokerages offer near instantaneous moves. 


So I sold me stuff at the highest price they have been...

Just before they tanked....

 

N you say I should of kept them...?

 

I do not get yer logic....

 

But ..if you want.....pm me fer yer contact info...

N..the next time I see this situation...

I will gladly sell me high value stuff...to you happahly...just before they tank...

If that would make you happy.... :0)

Edited by - figmo59 on 09/21/2021 14:31:17

Sep 21, 2021 - 3:28:16 PM

YellowSkyBlueSun

Virgin Islands (U.S.)

416 posts since 5/11/2021

figmo59 Don't take me the wrong way, make the moves that fit for your investment strategy. But the important thing that I've been taught is that you set an investment strategy and stick too it, regardless of what the market does from day to day or week to week. There's a lot of very rich people that made their wealth with equities, and almost all of them will say that you can't time the market. Everyone is different. But I think time is always the great equalizer, and ultimately these little blips are just that. A small loss one day to the next doesn't change the overall rule, that if you hold and don't sell the value will always climb. Time will tell, of course.

What you're doing with your currency is good. Buying tangible assets. At the end of the day, that's not all that different from equities. But I've seen a lot of people do the same thing and just hold USD in a money market, or buy bonds, and I never understood it because they'll miss out on 15% gains over the course of a year just to avoid a potential loss (that they'll never realize anyway).

Mostly though, what surprised me is that it takes your broker 4 business days to move funds after you put your orders in. That seems very strange, regardless of whether you're buying or selling.

Edited by - YellowSkyBlueSun on 09/21/2021 15:30:52

Sep 21, 2021 - 4:40:39 PM

figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

This one portfolio is about 8 years...in maturing...
Not a day trade thing...

Sep 21, 2021 - 5:32:41 PM

YellowSkyBlueSun

Virgin Islands (U.S.)

416 posts since 5/11/2021

Makes sense, you want to save your gains.

But that's just my point: if this is a long-term investment portfolio, why are you concerned with short-term price movements?

Sep 21, 2021 - 7:53:40 PM

donc

Canada

6731 posts since 2/9/2010

Market optimism isn't a bad thing as long as you face the other realities. I always suggest that you keep enough cash to meet any and all possible expenses. This would include 6 months of unemployment if your job isn't secured by a legal contract. Government employment insurance may buy the groceries but it won't replace a real pay check. Enough cash to cover health insurance has to be included. My experience has been that the market will tank right before your roof needs replacing or other such disaster.. Depending upon a healthy liquidation at any time during the next 10 years is somewhere between being ignorant or being totally naive. Over a few decades the market has gradually stepped upward and it may continue to do the same but many people will still be badly hurt during that time because they will have too many eggs in one basket. The secret word here is 'diversification'.

Sep 21, 2021 - 8:08:49 PM
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figmo59

USA

34337 posts since 3/5/2008

quote:
Originally posted by YellowSkyBlueSun

Makes sense, you want to save your gains.

But that's just my point: if this is a long-term investment portfolio, why are you concerned with short-term price movements?


I got cault before with me pants down...as did many thousands of other folks..

Mebee even ..you..

 

It happens....but one can learn...

I did......

 

Be carefull..who you listen to.....

 

I got the same spcheal... you touted...earlyer...

Probly from ah guy...who went to the same learning instatoots...as the bloke that gave you that spcheal....

 

Learn to think on yer own...

I call it reading the tea leaves...

 

Heh...it's just ..this time...tea leaves hits closer to ..home...

 

What would you give fer all the tea in China..?

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