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Oct 31, 2020 - 8:33:14 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
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.... in this context?  https://www.gov.mb.ca/covid19/updates/index.html

Manitoba has been releasing counts on a daily basis.... until yesterday.   Yesterday's report says we had "480 new cases."  If one adds up Sunday-through-Thursday, it does indeed come to 480 .... 2+4+44+193+237=480.  There was no mention of any changes in how cases would be tabulated or reported.

On Friday did we have 237 "new" cases or 480 "new" cases?

Oct 31, 2020 - 8:54:23 AM
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figmo59

USA

31970 posts since 3/5/2008

New only means....
You git ta break it...First... :0/

Edited by - figmo59 on 10/31/2020 08:55:41

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:01:49 AM

10379 posts since 2/22/2007

Owen, the lack of clear data reporting has been very frustrating.  Also, are these "cases" or "tested positive"? Media acts like every positive test winds up in the hospital, as if this rise in positives was something terrible, when most have mild or even no symptoms. It seems to me that what we want and need are lots and lots of positives who do not get sick, no? That is a faster route to herd immunity than waiting for a possible vaccine. I worry about a surge in hospitalizations, not test results.

Edited by - banjo bill-e on 10/31/2020 09:02:42

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:06:35 AM

figmo59

USA

31970 posts since 3/5/2008

Hmmmm...
I wonder why the homeless have not dropped like flys...
One might think that they might be one of the..most vunerable..

N....no...
I do not wish I'll on them..or annahone fer that matter..before annahone goes ..there.. :0/

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:27:27 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

I think they're "positive test results."   [And as an aside I've heard from "usually reliable sources" that the researcher that developed the test that MB is using has said that it is being used improperly.  But I haven't verified that.]  

Just now CBC radio reported "Manitoba has experienced it's highest spike... a daily increase of 480 cases."  My interpretation says that that's a false statement, but otoh, if the [mediocre] experts hadn't "spun" the figures, the media would more likely have gotten it right.

So, was Friday's count 237 "new" cases? or 480 "new" cases?  [And "yes" doesn't cut it.  cheeky ]

I'm with you Bill re. positives who don't get sick / herd immunity and the capacity of the "system."  MB has recently reported that [at least] one hospital is at/over capacity.... but it seems that it's that they're short on "intensive care units," not overall capacity.  In that more wards can be equipped and designated as intensive care units I get the feeling that once again we're not being given the straight goods.... although our head nurse did give re-equipping wards passing mention in her schpiel.

Oct 31, 2020 - 11:19:18 AM

Texasbanjo (Moderator)

USA

25127 posts since 8/3/2003

It's a shame that all hospitals/cities/counties/states don't report the same information the same way, but they don't.

Our hospital(s) report the number of new "positive" cases (not just the number tested that day), number of people in the hospital, number in ICU and number of deceased and do that each day and keep a cumulative number also. That way you can see how many tested positive, how many in the hospital, etc., you don't have to wonder if it's current, cumulative or something else. They also are open about how many beds for Covid patients they have and what percentage that is to total beds. This kind of information I think keeps people from speculating and wondering about what's happening, at least in our town, as we know each day.

I guess each entity has its own way of giving out information.

Oct 31, 2020 - 2:51:31 PM

chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

Alberta’s recent release/update




Oct 31, 2020 - 8:22:52 PM
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donc

Canada

6471 posts since 2/9/2010

The important thing in any ongoing measurement is to be consistent. If people understand the 5 measurements consistently given they can conclude that if these 5 lines on the graph increase at roughly the same time there is a real problem. Realistically there is a slight delay between these 5 lines on the same graph. A high infection rate will follow with more hospitalizations, which will follow with cases of intensive care, which will follow with more deaths. An increasing positivity rate [worse than 5%] indicates that more cases are likely being missed. One doctor compared positivity rates to a fishing net. If there are a lot of fish in the net we can conclude that there are lots of fish remaining in that spot. If only a few fish are caught [i.e. low positivity rate] we can concluded that we will likely not find very many more. Some people still talk about herd immunity like it's a proven solution. The other problem is the long term effects of the disease. Are we eventually going to end up with millions of 50 year olds who are too weak to go to work due to scarring on the lungs and heart ? The false reports about Sweden and herd immunity are really mixing us up. Sweden is still in deep trouble. The number of deaths required to get herd immunity would make today's numbers look like a fire in a tea pot. We can't eliminate it without a vaccine but it is proven that we can flatten the curve. Doing this will save most of us and we will not end up with the hospitals being overwhelmed. In areas where this has succeeded many more people are now back at work. Why argue with success ?

Oct 31, 2020 - 8:35:31 PM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

quote:
Originally posted by donc.
 <snip> In areas where this has succeeded many more people are now back at work. Why argue with success ?

Don, are these successful areas in Canada, or elsewhere?  

P.S. I note so far nobody has answered my question re. whether MB had 237 or 480 "new" infections on Friday.

Edit: I also note you mention that "most of us will be saved" if we flatten the curve.  Do you have reliable statistical projections on how may will be saved if things go well and how many will be saved if they don't?

Edited by - Owen on 10/31/2020 20:45:55

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:08:07 PM

donc

Canada

6471 posts since 2/9/2010

quote:
Originally posted by Owen
quote:
Originally posted by donc.
  In areas where this has succeeded many more people are now back at work. Why argue with success ?

Don, are these successful areas in Canada, or elsewhere?  

P.S. I note so far nobody has answered my question re. whether MB had 237 or 480 "new" infections on Friday.

Edit: I also note you mention that "most of us will be saved" if we flatten the curve.  Do you have reliable statistical projections on how may will be saved if things go well and how many will be saved if they don't?


Korea is one good example unless they have fallen backward again. France and Italy made great improvements once but how can a European Union country control its borders ?   Our Provincial health officer seems to partially answer your other question. Not all of the cases are measured and reported at the same speed. Several areas of the province are conducting these  at varying speeds. Some are retesting suspicious results and correcting their reports a few days later. As to how many will die with plan A or plan B the most popular explanation may be the U.S. source known as the 'Seattle Modeling'.  It may not be precise but it may be the best we have. 

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:20:09 PM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

I'm  interested in the cumulative death toll when things eventually reach a steady state (?)..... my uneducated guess is that that could be years down the road.

Fwiw, I doubt that Bonny Henry answered my question [i.e. 237 or 480?] .... do you have a link to where she does?  wink

Edit: I see where Fauci says that with a vaccine the US may get to some semblance of "normalcy" in 2022.  I don't know what degree of vaccine efficacy he's using....and I didn't see any projections re. total #s of deaths for vaccines with differing projected rates of efficacy. 

Edit#2: I think your question re. Bonny Henry is for Don.... I took his  mentioning that "our ________ "  meant BC and/or BH.

Edited by - Owen on 10/31/2020 21:35:05

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:27:14 PM

chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

This is what I found for MB,,
“Of the 349 new cases, one was identified Tuesday, three were identified Wednesday, 131 were identified Thursday and 214 were identified on Friday, including:”

item : https://globalnews.ca/news/7434818/coronavirus-manitoba-covid-19-cases-oct-31/

p.s. ** why would Bonnie Henry be commenting on MB ?

Edited by - chuckv97 on 10/31/2020 21:28:47

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:34:09 PM

10935 posts since 1/15/2005

To make sense you have to know the entire context of the "new" cases. MY university has conducted over 100,000 tests and I think we have had around 3,000 positive tests (new cases). Our fellow state university has only had 2,400 positive tests, but have more than 10,000 students more than we do, yet have only conducted half the number of tests. It makes a difference.

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:35:57 PM
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Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

quote:
Originally posted by Owen

I'm  interested in the cumulative death toll when things eventually reach a steady state (?)..... my uneducated guess is that that could be years down the road.

Fwiw, I doubt that Bonny Henry answered my question [i.e. 237 or 480?] .... do you have a link to where she does?  wink

Edit: I see where Fauci says that with a vaccine the US may get to some semblance of "normalcy" in 2022.  I don't know what degree of vaccine efficacy he's using....and I didn't see any projections re. total #s of deaths for vaccines with differing projected rates of efficacy. 

Edit #2: Chuck, I think your question re. Bonny Henry is for Don.... I took his  mentioning that "our provincial health officer"  meant BC and/or BH.

Edit #3:  I see I'm getting posts doubled up and who knows what else.  11:40 DST.... past my bed-time.   Nitie-nite all.... with the extra hour, I expect I'll be bushy-tailed and rarin' to go tomorrow.  cheeky

Edited by - Owen on 10/31/2020 21:42:20

Oct 31, 2020 - 9:52:48 PM

donc

Canada

6471 posts since 2/9/2010

Owen or Chuck: There were 3 different questions from what I could tell. I was referring to Bonny Henry when she explained about the irregularity of reporting etc... This would be a typical problem everywhere where testing is spread out across a large area, like half the provinces in Canada.

Edited by - donc on 10/31/2020 21:53:51

Nov 1, 2020 - 6:05:45 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

Maybe the extra snoozing has done me no good.  I rechecked the OP and see only one question: "On Friday did we have 237 "new" cases or 480 "new" cases?" 

My question was a simple and straightforward as they come.  It had/has nothing to do with context, infection rates, the need to retest or correct old info, etc., etc., etc.    Just a simple 1,2,3,4, etc. 'til you get to the end of positive tests for that day.  And tomorrow, 1,2,3,4, etc. 'til you get to the end of the positive tests for that day.  And so on and so forth.  ...and then report it honestly and accurately.

I have no problem if our [mediocre] experts want to report a cumulative number.  I do have a problem when they try to pass off a 5-day count as a 1-day count.  To me that's an attempt to deliberately mislead [sadly, one that has apparently been quite successful crying ]. 

I was hoping to make 2 points: a) that "they" deliberately misled us, and b) Why should/would anyone think this is a one-off?

Edit: [gotta get at least one in].... I see I put Bonny when it's Bonnie.... it won't happen again!  I trust that that doesn't detract from my question or a) ^ and b) ^. wink

Edited by - Owen on 11/01/2020 06:20:55

Nov 1, 2020 - 6:28:07 AM

chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

My Bonny Lies Over The Ocean,, BC’s Bonnie lies,,,,err, doesn’t try pull any wool over anybody’s eyes.
Methinks health experts keep pushing the severity of it so people don’t start slacking off. It’s aimed not at intelligent, research-oriented folks from Russell but at much of the unwashed masses who aren’t prone to dig any deeper. Yeah, I know they make the accumulative number for the week sound like a “new” daily count. The link I provided clears that up, no?

Nov 1, 2020 - 7:03:38 AM
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Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

If it's aimed at the churlish masses, all the more reason to make it honest and straightforward, no? 

I think you're right about the over-hyping, but I think it will, some time in the forseeable future, have the opposite effect...people are gonna start figuring "%&$#&% this noise."  I think in this instance it was used to make Winnipeg's move to "code red" tomorrow seem more urgent. Personally, this research-oriented retired farmer/sewer worker/teacher thinks the weekly trend [i.e. 2 > 4 > 44 > 193 > 237] would be more convincing, but I guess "they" figured a one-day (?) count of 480 would mislead more people.

Yes, the Global site does give the daily counts.... the gov't site did that too.... I just figure one shouldn't have to read the fine print, or depend on the media to "clear things up."    To MY mind, someone subsequently coming up with correct info doesn't absolve "them" from  deliberately putting out misleading info.   Fwiw, Global TV, CTV and CBC TV all reported that the one-day count on Friday was 480..... and none of them advised us to do our own digging to get more accurate info.

Edited by - Owen on 11/01/2020 07:10:47

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:16:21 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

And to flog a dying horse, just now, CBC radio reported Saturday's new cases as 349... "down from Friday's one-day record of 480."   If reporting Friday's count as 480 is acceptable, wouldn't it follow that a Saturday count of 829 [480+349] would be equally acceptable/honest?   ... and make just as much sense? 

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:19:46 AM

chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

They r math-challenged...

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:23:27 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

.... math-challenged and integrity-challenged..... great combo.   yes

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:25:06 AM

chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

Time to write to your Hon. Member of Parliament, Owen, and air your grievances to one who cares * (**),,,,,,

(*not to say I don't)

(**sarcasm totally intentional)

Edited by - chuckv97 on 11/01/2020 08:26:42

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:39:57 AM

Owen

Canada

6932 posts since 6/5/2011
Online Now

I guess this one is more provincial than federal, but fwiw  a couple of years ago I emailed my MLA about the possibility of improving MB's "declined ballot" provision*.  So far not even an acknowledgement that he received the email. 

After the Humboldt bus crash I emailed the transportation (?) ministers in MB and SK about the value of rumble strips..... in each instance a flunky gave me an electronic bum's rush.   So, i think my batting average lately is down on the gravel road leading to the interstate.   Otoh, maybe my slump will soon end.

* = and that reminds me of making a similar suggestion by letter [remember those??] re. federal elections to Jean-Pierre Kingsley when he was Chief Electoral Officer (?).  The result was........same as my email to my MLA.   Ah, well, where there's life, there's hope ... I hope.

Edited by - Owen on 11/01/2020 08:43:09

Nov 1, 2020 - 8:47:03 AM
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chuckv97

Canada

53642 posts since 10/5/2013

Owen, it’s the old saw - it’s not what you know, it’s WHO you know.

Nov 2, 2020 - 3:55:45 AM

phb

Germany

2205 posts since 11/8/2010

quote:
Originally posted by banjo bill-e

Media acts like every positive test winds up in the hospital, as if this rise in positives was something terrible, when most have mild or even no symptoms. It seems to me that what we want and need are lots and lots of positives who do not get sick, no? That is a faster route to herd immunity than waiting for a possible vaccine. I worry about a surge in hospitalizations, not test results.


Since a percentage of the positive tests do end up in hospital, a surge in positive tests means a surge in hospitalisations a few weeks later. Of course, there are variables such as the age of the positives that do influence the number of hospitalisations, however, many positives mean a much higher risk to high-risk groups of getting infected or at least many people that have to lock themselves up at home. How many million people staying at home can a country deal with? I do not believe that a high number of positives at the same time is desirable because there is no way to make sure that the virus only infects those that will survive it.

I was tested positive three weeks ago (both PCR and antibody tests) and was definitely sick with covid19. I only had a mild symptoms but completely lost my smell. I have been working from home since April and hardly get out among people and still got it. I really couldn't have lived much differently if I belonged to a high-risk group but got it nonetheless. There is no way to isolate high-risk people from the virus.

In addition to this it is still not known whether there is such a thing as immunity against the virus. There is no immunity against herpes, not against HIV, not against HPV and many other viruses.

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