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CDC Confirms Extremely Low Death Rate from Covid .....

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Jul 2, 2020 - 7:20:52 AM
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10407 posts since 1/15/2005

Interesting ..... looks like Stanford researchers got it right!

https://technocracy.news/cdc-confirms-extremely-low-covid-19-death-rate/

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:29:41 AM
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chuckv97

Canada

50980 posts since 10/5/2013

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments? (and I include all sides)

Edited by - chuckv97 on 07/02/2020 07:41:39

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:35:11 AM

Owen

Canada

5843 posts since 6/5/2011

....another link: https://www.newsguardtech.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/technocracy-1.pdf

Chuck, if my memory serves me correctly [occasionally it still does]  a few weeks back some scoffed at me for saying that the capacity of the medical system should be an important consideration. wink

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:38:54 AM

chuckv97

Canada

50980 posts since 10/5/2013

Owen, I’ve gathered all along that was the concern with Fauci and the others. The WHO has got their numbers wrong, though, by the looks of things as far as the death rate goes.

Edited by - chuckv97 on 07/02/2020 07:42:20

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:42:15 AM
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1 posts since 9/25/2008

Just noting that the source 'technocracy.news' is anti-science, anti-mask, anti vaccination, anti-climate change... seems to be a pattern.

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:43:27 AM
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4759 posts since 10/6/2009

quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments?


Exactly Chuck. With new cases now hitting the whopping 50,000 PER DAY amount and with the total deaths at 130,000 and counting........I guess we can all find joy in the fact that Stanford might have been correct about the "death rate".  I'd relay that information to my brother but he passed away 3 months ago from the virus. My sister in-law is an ICU nurse in Massachusetts and the stories that I heard from her during the peak hospital capacity of cases were truly terrifying. Things are not getting better in the US and the virus is certainly not going away.

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:47:35 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments? (and I include all sides)


Chuck, it is stating facts.  Some people get bent out of shape because they don't agree with the facts (on both sides), and that's OK, but facts are still facts.  Way too often we are treated like children because those in authority don't think we can deal with the truth.  There may be some good reasoning behind that, but personally I want to know what the truth is so I can deal with it.  I am not going to stop wearing a mask, quite washing my hands, using hand sanitizer and doing a l the other precautions because I know the truth.  

Edited by - BanjoLink on 07/02/2020 07:52:01

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:50:05 AM
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3858 posts since 4/7/2009

It’s the permanent lung damage that bothers me. I’m sure this lady is an outlier, but it’s scary stuff.

nytimes.com/2020/06/11/health/...lant.html

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:55:54 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by cocoloco

Just noting that the source 'technocracy.news' is anti-science, anti-mask, anti vaccination, anti-climate change... seems to be a pattern.


Corrine, I realize that there are news sources that not everyone agrees with.  However, the CDC seems to be the agency that is held up as the reliable source for information.  I don't care about what Technocracy News believes about climate change, anti-mask (which the CDC initially also said), so I guess your argument is with the CDC.  Do you think the CDC is wrong.

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:56:24 AM
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5134 posts since 9/5/2006

well with my health,,lungs,diabetes,high blood i ain't takin no chances with this crap.
ya'll want to run and play and have a good time thats fine with me. just be smart about it. all of you are (or most) are like brothers to me .......

Edited by - 1935tb-11 on 07/02/2020 07:57:47

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:57:37 AM
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1213 posts since 2/4/2013

"They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19."

Jul 2, 2020 - 7:59:30 AM
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4759 posts since 10/6/2009

Steve, yes - the potential harm to all of the organs of the body are starting to be better understood. The truth is that young people are also seeing incredibly tragic "side effects" to their overall health even though they might have survived the virus in general.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:00:16 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by Bolie Jackson
quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments?


Exactly Chuck. With new cases now hitting the whopping 50,000 PER DAY amount and with the total deaths at 130,000 and counting........I guess we can all find joy in the fact that Stanford might have been correct about the "death rate".  I'd relay that information to my brother but he passed away 3 months ago from the virus. My sister in-law is an ICU nurse in Massachusetts and the stories that I heard from her during the peak hospital capacity of cases were truly terrifying. Things are not getting better in the US and the virus is certainly not going away.


I find no joy that a single person has died from this awful virus.  I don't see people jumping for joy over the death rate.  I think it is positive that it is not as deadly as was previously predicted.  I think everyone should be relieved at that.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:04:44 AM

chuckv97

Canada

50980 posts since 10/5/2013

As John alluded to about truth, perhaps the health professionals overstated the severity of the virus to make a stronger impact on the general public in order for them to take it seriously and do the distancing, hand washing, mask wearing, staying in, etc.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:08:16 AM
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10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by 1935tb-11

well with my health,,lungs,diabetes,high blood i ain't takin no chances with this crap.
ya'll want to run and play and have a good time thats fine with me. just be smart about it. all of you are (or most) are like brothers to me .......


You are right Terry.  I am in a more susceptible age group, although I am pretty healthy.  I do not take any necessary chances and will do what is necessary to protect myself and others.  My wife has underlying conditions, so the last thing I want to do is bring it into the house where she is infected.  

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:09:10 AM
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4759 posts since 10/6/2009

quote:
Originally posted by BanjoLink
quote:
Originally posted by Bolie Jackson
quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments?


Exactly Chuck. With new cases now hitting the whopping 50,000 PER DAY amount and with the total deaths at 130,000 and counting........I guess we can all find joy in the fact that Stanford might have been correct about the "death rate".  I'd relay that information to my brother but he passed away 3 months ago from the virus. My sister in-law is an ICU nurse in Massachusetts and the stories that I heard from her during the peak hospital capacity of cases were truly terrifying. Things are not getting better in the US and the virus is certainly not going away.


I find no joy that a single person has died from this awful virus.  I don't see people jumping for joy over the death rate.  I think it is positive that it is not as deadly as was previously predicted.  I think everyone should be relieved at that.


John, I don't for a minute believe that you find joy in any deaths from this mess and I apologize if I came across like that. You seem like a great guy and yes, I actually find some good news like the low death rate to be worth noting. The virus hit home for me in late March and early April and I have not been too "emotionally" stable since that time (as you probably could see from my uhm, "passionate" postings recently (on all subjects). Must be my way of grieving for losing a loved one. Sorry to derail your thread friend. The discussions on the board have been good

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:12:18 AM
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10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

As John alluded to about truth, perhaps the health professionals overstated the severity of the virus to make a stronger impact on the general public in order for them to take it seriously and do the distancing, hand washing, mask wearing, staying in, etc.


Problem now Chuck is that way way too many young people are not taking it seriously.  Myrtle Beach, in my home state is a hot bed of Covid due mainly to young people completely ignoring masks and social distancing.  Huge crowds paying no attention at all.  Exacerbating the problem is that these large groups are from all over the mid-west states, so kids are taking the virus back to Ohio, Indiana, etc. and spreading it there.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:18:35 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by Bolie Jackson
quote:
Originally posted by BanjoLink
quote:
Originally posted by Bolie Jackson
quote:
Originally posted by chuckv97

Death rate, yes,,,what about ICU rate or general hospitalized rate which is the concern. And there is some immature defensiveness in the tone of that article, which seems to be the norm too often nowadays.  Can't we get reporting anymore without the snide comments?


Exactly Chuck. With new cases now hitting the whopping 50,000 PER DAY amount and with the total deaths at 130,000 and counting........I guess we can all find joy in the fact that Stanford might have been correct about the "death rate".  I'd relay that information to my brother but he passed away 3 months ago from the virus. My sister in-law is an ICU nurse in Massachusetts and the stories that I heard from her during the peak hospital capacity of cases were truly terrifying. Things are not getting better in the US and the virus is certainly not going away.


I find no joy that a single person has died from this awful virus.  I don't see people jumping for joy over the death rate.  I think it is positive that it is not as deadly as was previously predicted.  I think everyone should be relieved at that.


John, I don't for a minute believe that you find joy in any deaths from this mess and I apologize if I came across like that. You seem like a great guy and yes, I actually find some good news like the low death rate to be worth noting. The virus hit home for me in late March and early April and I have not been too "emotionally" stable since that time (as you probably could see from my uhm, "passionate" postings recently (on all subjects). Must be my way of grieving for losing a loved one. Sorry to derail your thread friend. The discussions on the board have been good


Bolie .... I knew that about your brother and I think about that every time I read one of your posts.  I hate that you have to deal with that.  I tend to be an optimist and look for good news where I can find it.  This virus has torn us in so many ways that I think we are all looking for something that will give us hope that ity can be ended.  It is easy for someone like me, who still works, but doesn't really need to, who can sit at home and limit my travel to the grocery store to advise everyone else to do the same.  But there are millions and millions of people who have to work and are at some (or a lot) of risk.  I see 70+ year old cashiers at grocery stores, Home Depot, etc. that I know are working because they have to.  So we are in a tough place and are just going to have to find a way to deal with it.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:23:29 AM

4759 posts since 10/6/2009

John, I hear you man..and thanks for the thoughts. You always seem to speak from the heart and I appreciate that. Enjoy the holiday weekend!

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:32:53 AM
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1213 posts since 2/4/2013

quote:
Originally posted by BanjoLink
I think it is positive that it is not as deadly as was previously predicted.  I think everyone should be relieved at that.

True but it's not realistic to use this figure as a real guide. It is widely thought that death rates are higher than reported in most countries.  No doubt that the WHO figure was too high. But that was then and this is now. Treatment has improved as the medics have learned what is best. Some people say the virus is losing its potency. perhap sit is, perhaps it isn't.

Perhaps if things stayed exactly the same as they did in March we might be nearer the WHO figure. Also lockdowns have prevented hospitals being overwhelmed. Without that more would have died. It's a complex and still poorly understood situation which simple figures do not cover. The report linked ignores all this so it can stick to playing down the death rate.

Jul 2, 2020 - 8:56:40 AM
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rinemb

USA

12425 posts since 5/24/2005
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I did plenty of dumb things in HS and in College, that could have hurt or killed me, but only me. Those college aged kids in Alabama playing covid games to see who can pass it on first, and who gets it first wins a pot of money...now that is stupid and can hurt more than just themselves..
Unless that story has now been proven fake news??? Brad

Jul 2, 2020 - 9:11:47 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by rinemb

I did plenty of dumb things in HS and in College, that could have hurt or killed me, but only me. Those college aged kids in Alabama playing covid games to see who can pass it on first, and who gets it first wins a pot of money...now that is stupid and can hurt more than just themselves..
Unless that story has now been proven fake news??? Brad


You are right Brad ...... intentionally passing it on is totally irresponsible.  I'm guessing that it is not fake news, but there is no question that too many young people are not taking it seriously.  Boomer Esiason suggested that our football team, along with Alabama and LSU are passing to teammates on purpose so that during the football season we won't have players sitting out because the contract the virus.  I don't believe that for a second, due to incredible ethics problems and not to mention legal liability, but since they are now allowed on campus and are working out together it was bound to happen.

Jul 2, 2020 - 9:16:30 AM

10407 posts since 1/15/2005

quote:
Originally posted by GrahamHawker
quote:
Originally posted by BanjoLink
I think it is positive that it is not as deadly as was previously predicted.  I think everyone should be relieved at that.

True but it's not realistic to use this figure as a real guide. It is widely thought that death rates are higher than reported in most countries.  No doubt that the WHO figure was too high. But that was then and this is now. Treatment has improved as the medics have learned what is best. Some people say the virus is losing its potency. perhap sit is, perhaps it isn't.

Perhaps if things stayed exactly the same as they did in March we might be nearer the WHO figure. Also lockdowns have prevented hospitals being overwhelmed. Without that more would have died. It's a complex and still poorly understood situation which simple figures do not cover. The report linked ignores all this so it can stick to playing down the death rate.


Graham, you may be right.  I don't fault any organization whose number were not correct, or even close, because I suspect they had rather err on the high side than the low side.  Researchers at places like Stanford do not have the same responsibility to the public as agencies like the WHO and CDC.  Of course some tried to play it down, I guess not trying to create a panic, while others played it up trying to make more people cautious.  We all remember health officials in New York and other places telling people to carry on as usual.  Of course they did not know and it happened to be bad advice.  20-20 hindsight is great, so maybe we have learned something from this.

Jul 2, 2020 - 9:21:07 AM
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72660 posts since 5/9/2007
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The results of how we act today don't show up for 2 to 4 weeks.

Jul 2, 2020 - 10:23:10 AM
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Tobus

USA

2381 posts since 11/17/2015

We should keep in mind that the CDC is labeling this their "current best estimate", not a confirmed fact. They're trying to analyze the data as best they can, but our data in the US is severely flawed. Much of this estimate is based on conjecture and extrapolation of the number of asymptomatic people who aren't being tested. It is a FACT that their latest numbers are not FACTS. But still, it's what we have to go by at this point.

Also, the 0.4% overall death rate is sort of meaningless, since it doesn't apply to anyone at the individual level. It's an aggregate. Your ACTUAL probability of dying from this depends on which age group you're in. I'm 45 years old, so my group is at 0.05%. Many of you are in the 1.3% category. You are 26 times more likely to die from this than me.  And even the age-specific numbers are aggregates; they don't take into account health conditions at the individual level.  If you have any existing health issues and are 65+, your chance of dying could actually be much, much higher.  Those numbers haven't been put together yet.

COVID-19 doesn't kill randomly.  Your survivability depends on factors we haven't fully identified.  Blood type seems to be a part of it, but we're not sure how much.  Do you have the right or wrong blood type?  Are there other genetic strengths and weaknesses at play here?  Nobody knows yet. 

Last but not least, they have identified a whole lot of different strains/mutations of this virus.  The ones currently infecting the USA are not necessarily the same combination that are at work in China, Europe, Africa, etc.  They appear to have different levels of lethality.  What we think the mortality rate is today could be completely different in 6 months if a new strain becomes dominant.

Jul 2, 2020 - 11:12:23 AM

3963 posts since 11/29/2005

Last time I ran the numbers (total cases reported divided into total deaths reported), it is still running between 4 & 5%.

Since the "standard death rate" of other viri (like the Swine Flu and the other recent large pandemic) is described as around 2%, I think the death rate is running quite high. And, I usually run both the US and my State's numbers.

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