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 ARCHIVED TOPIC: lock down effects on climate.


Please note this is an archived topic, so it is locked and unable to be replied to. You may, however, start a new topic and refer to this topic with a link: http://www.banjohangout.org/archive/362703

nakigreengrass - Posted - 04/01/2020:  16:02:17


There's some interesting data coming through on Roy Spencer's site on this subject.

LH image.... temp rise likely caused by particles from Australian bush fires...RH image...abrupt temp drop likely caused by drop in atmospheric particles....

It seems even more likely now that air born particles both natural and man made play a huge part in temperature variations, even over very short time scales.




prooftheory - Posted - 04/01/2020:  23:42:01


How are you personally factoring in the low altitude industrial pollution and the high altitude contrails? I don't think anybody disagrees with the thesis that particles have an effect on climate.

rinemb - Posted - 04/02/2020:  04:32:46


So, scientists will be able measure and plot smog levels, a variety of atmospheric components, etc as the covid19 affects of human activity play out over some course of time.
I assume the biggie is will CO2 levels change, and can those levels be attributed to human factors? Anyway, i will follow this thread with interest. Brad

DC5 - Posted - 04/02/2020:  05:00:38


I don't think anyone ever argued that particulate matter in the atmosphere is not a major contributor to global temperatures. It has pretty much been substantiated that air born particles from and asteroid hitting the earth was the primary cause of the mass extinction that wiped out the dinosaurs. Temperatures increased after clean air acts in the 1970s due to reduced particulate matter from trash burning, smokestacks, and automobile exhaust. There was also a measurable rise in temperatures after 9/11 when there were no flights creating contrails in the upper atmosphere. Particulate matter reflects sunlight before it can get to the planet surface and be converted to heat.


Edited by - DC5 on 04/02/2020 05:01:09

GrahamHawker - Posted - 04/02/2020:  05:34:46


quote:

Originally posted by nakigreengrass



LH image.... temp rise likely caused by particles from Australian bush fires...






That's not true. The word used is tentatively, also known as a guess. The word is not "likely".

Buddur - Posted - 04/02/2020:  05:56:32


Yes, in general, atmospheric particles absorb sunlight and therefore heat up the atmosphere around them. You can be sure the magnitude of the Australian brush fires also in themselves heated up the atmosphere from the volumous flames.

Apparently there is an inverse correlation between one graph and the other regardless that the titles appear to depict the departure of atmospheric temps from the global average from 1981 to 2010....so as global lower stratospheric temp anomalies appear to show an overall decrease the average global temps, the temps of the lower global stratosphere are still generally increasing. There is more going on than meets the eye, most notably since there are more factors that affect global temps than just atmospheric anomalies or particulate matter.

RonR - Posted - 04/02/2020:  06:39:53


My daughter said the air is clearer and smells better in Los Angeles.

Frisco Fred - Posted - 04/02/2020:  11:14:16


viruses are the earth's immune system

banjoak - Posted - 04/02/2020:  13:51:29


quote:

Originally posted by GrahamHawker

quote:

Originally posted by nakigreengrass



LH image.... temp rise likely caused by particles from Australian bush fires...






That's not true. The word used is tentatively, also known as a guess. The word is not "likely".






The word  "likely" is preferred choice - if you want deny other, perhaps more probable explanations.



Anything but CO2?


Edited by - banjoak on 04/02/2020 13:52:58

nakigreengrass - Posted - 04/02/2020:  14:33:47


It is unlikely you will see any change in the accumulation of CO2 during the lock down. The emissions hiatus will likely be to short of a time frame for the stats to show above the data noise....but....The CO2 levels will drop soon, as they do every year in response the NH Boreal forest stepping up photosynthesis during summer.



 

nakigreengrass - Posted - 04/02/2020:  15:06:09


quote:

Originally posted by prooftheory

How are you personally factoring in the low altitude industrial pollution and the high altitude contrails? I don't think anybody disagrees with the thesis that particles have an effect on climate.






I think the contrails are easy enough to understand why they warm, because Cirrus clouds have a warming effect...but...



   re.particles effect... In fact the consensus is, they cause cooling and responsible for holding back GW. ( depending on the height in the atmosphere )  If the lower atmosphere temperature keeps falling during the lock down, you would have to be re-thinking that...and about how incoming  UV reacts with those partials.    It seems there's a chance of the particle albedo effect being less than the UV absorption effect.  So a net warming effect of atmospheric particles...ie. take the particles out and you get cooling... It is very early days for sure, but that is a very strong signal.


Edited by - nakigreengrass on 04/02/2020 15:09:47

JoeDownes - Posted - 04/04/2020:  10:50:10


Exploiting the pandemic to further your agenda again, Paul?

DC5 - Posted - 04/04/2020:  14:32:15


Don't feed the trolls.

rinemb - Posted - 04/05/2020:  05:27:18


As an apparently retiring scientist, I curiously look forward to a lively discussion in what may be this unique window of world wide disruption of human activity. Sadly, the longer this virus impacts human and industrial activity, the more we may learn?
Someday I am going to Google the modern definition of a troll.
Brad

janolov - Posted - 04/05/2020:  06:27:17


Perhaps 2020 will be the worst year for the Man, but the best year for the Earth.

OldWhiteGuy - Posted - 04/05/2020:  07:04:44


Whats interesting is the actual measurements of the atmosphere compared to one of the many computer models. They still send up weather balloons .....That made me scratch my head until I remembered , real science is about measurements , not models. The actual data collected by the balloon packets show the model(s) are way off , in fact just about useless. Hopefully the scientists collecting data are washing their hands ..

BanjoLink - Posted - 04/05/2020:  07:13:16


quote:

Originally posted by DC5

Don't feed the trolls.






...... or "drive-by" posters!

rinemb - Posted - 04/05/2020:  16:23:48


quote:

Originally posted by BanjoLink

quote:

Originally posted by DC5

Don't feed the trolls.






...... or "drive-by" posters!






Touche'..   what is a troll, though.  My posting grammar is a bit weak.  Brad

Owen - Posted - 04/05/2020:  16:32:07


Three Billy Goats Gruff (Hardcover) - Tree Top Book Shop

nakigreengrass - Posted - 05/01/2020:  15:53:57


Another month of lock down has passed. And exactly what we would expect to see.... is what we see. IE, a drop in temperature over continents that are most often crisscrossed by jets. CO2 levels have not shown any change from normal levels as, expected, but will soon drop again because of their annual cycle.




nakigreengrass - Posted - 05/01/2020:  18:19:34


Current CO2...




AndrewD - Posted - 05/03/2020:  03:41:13


As nakigreengrass has started yet another climate thread after the last one was locked (why ? I could say but we're not allowed to criticise mods) I have no problem with responding to his last attempt here.

Here's a better critique than I could provide (and follow this link to see a lot more) of his desperate attempt to create an unholy alliance with Micheal Moore to argue that there's no point in seeking technical solutions to a problem that he doesn't believe exists anyway.

 



 

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